Where We Are Today

According to Elliott Wave analysis, social mood reached a peak at several degrees of trend around 1999-2000. The significance of this is hard to overstate. At the Grand Supercycle degree of trend, social mood reached a Wave III (circle) peak in 2000, a wave that began in 1784. As it was a Grand Supercycle peak, all smaller degrees of trend also peaked at this time. It was manifested in the stock mania of the 1990's that culminated in the tech stock bubble and subsequent implosion. Thus began a decline in social mood at the highest degrees of trend, and therefore the strongest downward pressure on social mood in almost three centuries.

According to socionomic theory, all aspects of society are affected by the collective social mood, including trends in economics, entertainment, fashion, politics, sports, religion, race relations, international relations, architecture, and art, just to name a few.

As social mood began to decline (decreasing optimism), the stock market has also declined. From 2000 until around 2003 the US was in a minor recession. This was Cycle Wave A (down) of Supercycle Wave (A) (down). Cycle wave B (up) lasted from 2003-2007 and included the real estate bubble, which began to implode in mid-to-late 2007. We are now in Cycle Wave C (down) of Supercycle Wave (A). This is and will continue to be the strongest wave down until we bottom out and begin Supercycle Wave (B), (up). According to forecasts by the top Elliott Wave experts, we should hit the bottom of this wave between 2014 and 2016. Between now and then, the world is going to experience epic change.

When social mood is rising (increasing optimism) it appears to correlate with a collective increase in feelings like benevolence, inclusion, supportiveness, togetherness, feelings of homogeneity with others, tolerance, practical thinking, search for joy, and similar emotions that characterize happiness and optimism.

When social mood is declining (decreasing optimism moving toward increasing pessimism), we see the manifestations in feelings of protectionism, malevolence, magical thinking, separatism, xenophobia, discord, exclusion, intolerance, anger, and fear.

Now that we've established a rudimentary understanding of socionomics and social mood, future posts will focus more on the manifestations of social mood, and insights on how each of us will be affected as we navigate the progressively turbulent waters of the current bear market and declining social mood.